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Florida State Seminoles

Florida heavily favored over FSU but not unprecedented recently

Florida Football Insiders

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Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The renewal of the most fierce rivalry in the state is coming this Saturday in Gainesville. And while the Gators are heavily favored to wipe out FSU, the oddsmakers don’t have it as lopsided, as you might think.

On Sunday, with both teams coming off of a bye, Vegas sportsbooks installed Florida, as an 18-point favorite, and while there was some initial money on Florida State that moved the line up a tick, it has now held steady for the last two days at around 17 or 17  1/2 points.

Make no mistake, everyone everywhere believes that Florida will win easily at the Swamp Saturday. Then again, FSU could make their season after having fired coach Willie Taggart by beating their rival straight up.

Still, while it is the largest line in the series in the last six years, it’s not what the 2013 version of the Seminoles, who were unbeaten and ranked #2 in the country, were favored by in late November at Ben Hill Griffin Statdium.

That year, Jameis Winston was on his way to the Heisman Trophy in a couple of weeks and eventually a BCS National Championship game win over Auburn. Meanwhile, Will Muschamp’s Florida team was enduring their worst season in over 35 years, as they had lost in November to Vanderbilt and Georgia Southern at home to drop to 4-7.

So, Vegas installed Jimbo Fisher’s Noles as 28 point favorites, which as far back as we’ve been able to research, is the largest line in this series at least in the last 30 years.

And not surprisingly, that day in 2013, FSU dominated for three quarters, put the game on cruise control, and  covered the 28 point spread with a 37 – 7 blow-out win.

The Noles won the ACC Championship Game the following week and completed the perfect season when Winston hit Kelvin Benjamin with the game-winning touchdown in the final seconds of the Rose Bowl / BCS Title game.

Muschamp was fired the next season, Florida hired Jim McElwain and he fared no better being beaten decisively in 2015 and 16, as FSU easily dominated both of those matchups as a small favorite.

Dan Mullen’s Gainesville debut saw his team travel to Tallahassee a year ago as 7 point road favorites and destroyed Willie Taggart’s first-year Noles, 41 – 14. We wrote them that it was an obvious sign of how much farther along the Gators were than Florida State.

And now as it turns out, Taggart was fired early in November before he could ever participate in the second game of the rivalry in his career.

It should be pointed out as well, that the oddsmakers have pegged this game correctly in each of the last 6 years with the favorite covering every time.

Still, FSU interim coach Odell Haggins knows all about the rivalry, having been at Florida State for 30 years as a player and now a coach. And, he would love nothing more than to pull the shocker.

And, while Florida State is the significant underdog traveling on the road Saturday, they’ve had an extra week and may just be able to hang in and give Florida (and that 17 point line) some problems.

Florida State Seminoles

Cristobal Oregon Rose Bowl win reminder of what Taggart left

Florida Football Insiders

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Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Aas the Oregon Ducks celebrated a Rose Bowl victory New Year’s night in Pasadena, one angle to think about was the events of the last couple of years, as it relates to Willie Taggart abandoning their program just one year in, but Mario Cristobal staying behind and leading them to great things.

First, the Ducks won a thrilling 28 – 27 addition of the New Year’s Day classic over Wisconsin to cap off a 12 – 2 season. NFL prospect quarterback Justin Herbert threw for three touchdowns and ran for the eventual game-winning score in the win:

And, off the heels of a Pac-12 Championship upset of Utah a month ago, Cristobal is now “riding high” with the momentum of one of the best football brands in the West.

He posted later on Wednesday night a special thank you to the Duck fans and alumni for now being part of the program and their success:

Interestingly, his connection to come to Eugene was Taggart being hired three years ago at this time. The former USF coach needed someone that understood offense and recruiting and brought the former FIU coach, Cristobal with him to the Pacific Northwest.

Oregon had some success but also suffered five losses, and the next thing you knew Taggart jumped at the chance to take over at Florida State. There were many who reported and believed that Taggart wanted to bring Cristobal and defensive coordinator, Jim Leavitt, with him to the Seminoles.

However, Oregon AD Rob Mullens was so impressed with Cristobal in the interview process and having seen him up close for  year with the team, that he ended up promoting him to be the head coach. And, he gave Leavitt a fat raise to remain, as the defensive coordinator in Eugene.

And, as it turns out, that sunk Taggart from the very beginning on having two former head coaches to come and help him not only with the X’s and O’s but with recruiting in Florida which they are both Masters at.

Instead, Florida State completely unraveled in just a few short weeks of play in 2018 Cristobal helped the Ducks get to a bowl game.

And, that led to this season and great anticipation as Oregon opened at Arlington’s AT&T Stadium the home of the Cowboys with powerhouse Auburn. Auburn beat the Ducks with a touchdown in the final seconds, but it would be their only loss for the next 10 weeks.

In the meantime, Taggart got himself further in trouble with early-season losses and eventually fired on November 3rd after a 27 – 10 defeat to the Miami Hurricanes at home.

And as we stated above, the Oregon team excelled when it mattered the most establishing itself, again as the team to beat in the Pac-12 with their two postseason wins.

Now, FSU has gone on to replace Taggart with the very successful Memphis coach, Mike Norvell, and there is some optimism about his arrival in the Panhandle.

With Norvell in charge in 2020, the Seminoles will likely open with a win total of 6.5, down a game from last season according to this site here. And, while Norvell is a solid hire, FSU has its usual tough slate next season hosting Clemson and Florida, while facing Miami and Boise State on the road. The Noles are likely to be underdogs in another road date with resurgent Louisville too.

So, coming off a 6-7 year, FSU should consider it a success to have this team over .500 in his first season.

Now, back to Cristobal.

There is an argument that Oregon may not have enjoyed the same success with Taggart as the head coach, as they did with Cristobal taking over. Still, with Herbert at quarterback, it’s very likely that Oregon would have at least had a seven or eight wins season in each of the last couple of years and going to a bowl game again.

Do they go 12-2, win the Pac 12 and eventually, the Rose Bowl with Taggart? That’s a stretch to believe after how dismally he coached in Tallahassee.

And, since his firing, Taggart scrambled to find the head coaching job at Conference USA, Florida Atlantic, while Cristobal is looking at a significant raise to be at a Powerhouse Pac-12 program after a Rose Bowl win.

It’s a perfect example of a cliche in sports, that: “sometimes the best move, is one that you don’t make.”

Taggart should have never left Oregon and Cristobal was smart not to.

And, eventually, he ended up the head coach.

A head coach who was holding up a Rose Bowl trophy with his team in Pasadena Wednesday night

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Florida State Seminoles

FSU turned in one last awful 2019 performance in Sun Bowl

Florida Football Insiders

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Ivan Pierre Aguirre-USA TODAY Sports

If Tuesday’s New Year’s Eve afternoon Sun Bowl was supposed to be a tone-setter for 2020 and new head coach Mike Norvell, the Seminoles once again failed.

A six turnover day, including the go-ahead pick-6 being thrown by quarterback James Blackman, basically summed up the entire season as Arizona State beat FSU 20 – 14 in El Paso, TX.

The Noles could not take advantage of breaks and opportunities they were given early to put points on the board and that would come back to haunt them at the end.

The now 8 – 5 Sun Devils fumbled on the first play from scrimmage and FSU was set up for an easy touchdown. However, Blackman gave the gift right back, throwing his first of four interceptions on the day in the end zone, and Arizona State avoided giving up any points at all.

Later in the first quarter, FSU had a Ricky Aguayo short field goal blocked keeping them scoreless throughout the first half. Meanwhile, Christian Zendejas kicked three Sun Devil field goals for a 9 – 0 lead at the break.

Finally FSU, finishing 6-7, got something going in the second half using a trick play to help set them up. That’s when backup QB Jordan Travis threw a backwards pass to Blackman behind the line, and he threw back to Travis for an 18 yard gain that put the Seminoles at the 3-yard line.

Backup running back Ontaria Wilson, playing for Cam Akers who’d already declared for the NFL, scored on the next play and for the first Florida State points.

Following an Arizona State punt, lightning struck, when Blackman hit Tamorrion Terry, who raced the rest of the way for a 91 yard touchdown to put FSU up for the first time in the game 14 – 9. But, Zendejas added another field goal with 12 minutes remaining to trim the lead to 14 – 12.

And, that set the stage for more Florida State bumbling and miscues. With FSU back on offense and after picking up a first down, Blackman threw another pick on a play where it looked like the receiver ran the wrong route. ASU’s Willie Hearts ran the INT back 25 yards for a touchdown and the Sun Devils got the two-point conversion for a 20 – 14 lead.

Amazingly, Florida state would get the ball three more times in the final 10 minutes with a chance to get a winning touchdown. But, they lost the ball on downs, then Blackman was intercepted again, and finally, in the final two minutes Terry fumbled after a handoff  with Arizona State’s Tyler Johnson recovering to clinch the game.

It is the first time since the 1975 – 76 seasons that Florida state has finished with back-to-back losing campaigns. The 1976 season was the first for Hall of Fame coach, Bobby Bowden.

And, the Noles can only hope that as the calendar flips at midnight Tuesday night, that they can put the disastrous two-year Willie Taggart era behind them. And, look forward to what the former very successful Memphis coach, Norvell, can bring to rejuvenate things in Tallahassee.

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