The second edition of the 2018 College Football Playoff rankings will be out on Tuesday night, and without question, UCF will still be well outside of the top six, much less the top four.
So starting with today, we at F.F.I. will frequently update what the Knights will need, in addition to obviously finishing unbeaten themselves, to have hope of making the CFP final four teams
We have the understanding that Alabama has done enough to this point to solidify that, even if they take a loss at the end of the year, they will still be one of the four teams in the playoff. Clemson is virtually there with Alabama on getting in with a loss, depending on the team that might beat them, and the Tigers have a great chance also to finish unbeaten.
So that leaves two slots up for grabs and at the moment there is only one other major college team that is undefeated, with UCF. That’s Notre Dame.
So if you’re rooting on the black and gold in Orlando, you need to have Notre Dame lose. The Irish will host Florida State Saturday night and that means, it’s likely they will win and as much as it may pain you, you need help from the Seminoles.
Then, the Irish would have two games remaining with Syracuse at home, who could defeat them, and at USC in their traditional rivalry to end the regular season. The Trojans have had an up and down season so far, out West.
It is indisputable, that if Brian Kelly’s Irish win out and are 12-0, they are going to be in the playoff.
So, that would leave only one spot.
Next, call us crazy, but we’re going to go ahead and rule out teams with two losses, because the College Football Playoff committee cannot have any credibility in keeping a potential 12-0 UCF behind teams that have lost twice, especially in their final ranking.
So under that premise: you can say “goodbye” from last week’s results to LSU who was shut out by Alabama for a second loss, and also, Kentucky who was beaten decisively at home by Georgia for a second loss.
Both teams are also out of the SEC Championship game and should be behind UCF. when all is said and done if the Knights are unblemished.
So under our same theory, UCF fans want Ohio State to take a second loss, and they’re at Michigan State at noon Saturday. “Think Green,” UCF fans.
Likewise, it would be an unlikely gift if TCU could beat West Virginia for the Mountaineers second loss at noon in Morgantown. However, after an emotional last second win at Texas last week make them 7-1, it could happen.
Sticking with the Big XII, if Oklahoma State could upset Oklahoma in Norman in their “Bedlam” game, that would be a second loss for the Sooners. And also at Saturday afternoon, Washington State, who’s the top team in the Pac-12 with only one loss, is at Colorado.
The fellow black and gold Buffaloes could do the Knights a big favor by handing Mike Leach’s team a second defeat late in the year.
Also, unranked Auburn plays at Georgia in prime time Saturday night and if the Tigers can upset the Bulldogs for a second straight season that would be a second Georgia loss and damage them greatly for the playoff hopes, if not eliminate them, too.
Again we still have three weeks of football for all of this to sort out and set up.
However, UCF does have a path, that includes them remaining unbeaten and teams continuing to lose in front of them.
And, we at F.F.I will continue to monitor the scenarios.
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