Wednesday afternoon at the team facility in Davie, the Dolphins brass tried their best to not say much of anything in terms of draft strategy for next week. And, for the most part VP of football Mike Tannenbaum and GM Chris Grier did a great job of saying a lot of nothing.
One interesting aspect of the media session though, was when the subject turned to trading up in the draft, as many have speculated the Dolphins might try, to grab a quarterback.
Miami currently sit at #11 and the widespread belief is the top four quarterbacks, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield may all be gone before then. So, if Miami wants to move up, it will obviously take some serious draft pick fire power.
Well precedence dictates that it’s going to require premium picks, as in plural. Like, get ready to part with at least two number twos or a number one equivalent, and probably additional picks on top of that.
Tanenbaum told the media that just because the Jets moved up 3 spots swapping with the Colts back in March, that trade doesn’t necessarily set the market for Miami. As the Miami Herald transcribed:
“Obviously, three 2s for three spots, it looks like one team’s targeting something. That doesn’t necessarily affect the rest of the trades. And sometimes trades before the draft have one set of criteria, whereas once you’re in the heat of the moment….My view of that is the trade chart is a great guideline, but at the end of the day, if two teams want to get something done, they’re going to get something done.”
And you have to take into account that a team trying to trade into the top two or three is going to have to give up much more to do that.
For example, a year ago, the Bears wanted to swap from the number three overall spot with San Francisco to number two. They had to give up a third and a fourth last year, and a third round pick in this year’s draft, as well to that one precious spot and take QB Mitch Trubisky.
Likewise the Philadelphia Eagles wanted to move up from number eight to number two in the 2016 draft. So, they swapped with Cleveland giving the Browns a third and fourth that year, a first round pick last year’s draft, and a second round pick for this year. Huge price tag.
Cleveland also gave the Eagles a fourth round pick in last year’s draft along with their selection. The Eagles went on to take Carson Wentz and surged to a Superbowl win two years later.
Finally for comparison, the famous 2012 trade of Washington Redskins saw them deal their first round pick and two future first-round picks and a second-round pick to the Rams to move up from number six to number two and take RG III.
Again, in all of those scenarios were a team trying to move up to the 3rd or the 2nd overall pick. And, the Dolphins are not likely to try to move up that high. Rather, they will sit and wait to see if RB Saquon Barkley and DE Bradley Chubb are drafted in the top five. And then, one of the quarterbacks is sitting at six for the Colts or seven for the Buccaneers, both of whom who do not need a QB.
However, even moving up a couple of spots or more will probably cost them at least a future first-rounder and probably more.
It’s all food for thought, but the Fins have to be ready on the phones and with future draft selections, if they want to take the risk it and jump up to get one of those guys next week.
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