We have officially entered the lull of summer for NFL teams, as training camps in late July a little bit away. However, the debate about which players were teams will bounce back is always relevant. And, that would include, a prominent football voice and outlet backing Bucs quarterback Jameis Winston to have a big bounce-back year statistically.
Peter King of NBC Sports, and formerly of longtime leader writer for Sports Illustrated, has a popular online column, “Football morning in America.” And, while he is away on vacation himself, he lets guest writer and writers provide content for his popular slot.
This week that is covered by his NBC colleague and lead NFL analyst, Cris Collinsworth and Collinsworth’s outlet, Pro Football Focus.
Collinsworth says at the outset of the column that he is now the majority owner of PFF, because he believes in football advanced stats and analytics and the importance of quantifying how good teams and players are. Then, he, several of his prominent employees and analyst write different things in this week’s column that have to do with subjects like: advanced stats, players looking for breakout years, gambling data and more.
The interesting part was Collinsworth giving some opinions near the end of the column with one of the most prominent ones was his opinion along with the the staff at PFF, that Winston is poised to have a huge bounce-back statistical year throwing a football.
Here is what Collinsworth wrote Monday morning about Winston being paired with new coach Bruce Arians and the weapons around him:
“Jameis Winston will challenge for the passing yardage title in 2019. Last year he trailed only Josh Allen in average depth of target. These throws put Winston in a position to do great things at times (he was second among quarterbacks in the percentage of throws we grade as “positive”), as well as bad things (he was 21st in limiting negatively-graded throws).
New Bucs head coach Bruce Arians has a track record of succeeding with high-variance quarterbacks like Winston. In 2015 Carson Palmer had an MVP-caliber season under Arians, posting roughly the same average depth of target as Winston in 2018 and leading the league in percentage of positively-graded throws. With Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard a very capable trio of pass catchers, look for Winston to either make good on his 2015 draft position or give the Bucs no other option but to find his replacement the following year.”
Obviously, the Buccaneers are gambling on the same thing having picked up Winston’s fifth year option of his rookie deal, when they had an opportunity to cut ties with him. This is especially, after he was suspended for the first three games of last year due to violating the NFL personal conduct policy and then later in October, was benched again, for poor play and interceptions for veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick.
However Bucs ownership, the Glazer family, GM Jason Licht and obviously Arians with new offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich, all believe that he will be very successful.
And as Collinsworth and PFF point out, there are numerous receiving weapons for Winston to succeed with for the upcoming season.
Now, it’s going to be all about him putting it together.
Bucs defense dramatic stand saved night in Charlotte
So much has been made of first-year Bucs coach Bruce Arians’ offensive mindset, starting quarterback Jameis Winston’s arm talent and the weapons around them carrying the team, but Thursday night it was the Buccaneers defense that showed up big, as in the end, with the game on the line in the final two minutes, they save the day with a fourth-down heroic play.
Former first-round pick , DB Vernon Hargreaves, came up with a key one-on-one tackle on Carolina star RB Christian McCaffrey (above) on fourth down at the Tampa Bay one-yard line to keep the Panthers from getting a first down. And, it gave the Bucs the ball back to run out the clock and secure a much needed 20 – 14 win.
Hargreaves’ individual effort epitomized the Buccaneers solid defensive play all night in Charlotte, as they did not allow Carolina to score a touchdown and held them to only three points on offense the entire second half. .
As for the aforementioned Winston and his support on the other side of the ball, they supplied enough, including Peyton Barber running tough for 82 yards on 23 carries and a crucial third-quarter 16 yard touchdown run the gave Tampa Bay the lead for good at 17 – 12.
Winston finished 16-25 for 208 yards, including a first-half touchdown pass to third year receiver Chris Godwin. Godwin is quickly becoming Winston’s new favorite target, as he hauled in eight catches for 121 yards and the score.
Meanwhile, Panthers Pro Bowl quarterback Cam Newton had an off game, as well. Even though he threw for 300 yards, he still had 26 incompletions on 50 attempts and Carolina repeatedly had one drive after another fizzle out in Bucs territory.
Newton was also battered by Tampa Bay’s rush, as new DE Shaq Barrett had three sacks, and the Bucs front seven repeatedly hit and knocked him down. Another key moment came near midfield in the third, when Newton was stripped of the ball for a lost fumble. And, another new Buc, defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, fell on it.
And, to top it all off, McCaffery could mount very little offense Thursday night, either. A week after amassing over 200 yards from scrimmage against the Rams, he was held to 16 carries for only 37 yards and just two catches for just more 16 yards.
As for the key stop of McCaffery to preserve victory, Hargreaves said after the game late Thursday,
“It looked like it was going to be the Philly special from the Super Bowl. A reverse pass. When Cam walked up to the line of scrimmage, that’s what I thought it was going to be. As the play developed, McCaffrey faked it and he came right to me. I just stayed at home and he came right to me. I just had to make the play.”
A play that has Tampa Bay sitting 1-1 after a tough divisional win.
Three things to watch as Bucs take on Panthers Thursday night
It’s an NFC South showdown, where the loser knows they’re already off to an 0 – 2 start after Thursday night. And, the Bucs know that one of their former teammates is ready to help put them there.
With that in mind, here are three things to watch his Tampa Bay travels to Charlotte to take on the Carolina Panthers:
McCoy goes against his old team
For the first time in his 10-year career Gerald McCoy has a new place to call home, and will play his second game with the Panthers tonight against the team that drafted him third overall in 2010, and he went to six Pro bowls for over the course of the last nine seasons. McCoy (above) was unceremoniously shown the door for salary cap reasons earlier this offseason and signed a one-year deal with the division rival Carolina.
McCoy did little of consequence in the opening loss to the Rams last week, but the Bucs have had a history previously, of players leaving them and succeeding elsewhere. We’ll find out if he starts making an impact tonight against Jameis Winston & Company.
Cut down the mistakes.
If the Bucs weren’t busy turning the ball over, which they did four times, including three Winston interceptions last week, they were committing penalties and having blown assignments on their offensive line.
Throw in: Tampa Bay cost themselves three different times with penalties on third down on defense that kept 49er drives alive, and you can see why head coach Bruce Arians has been stressing for the last few days that those kind of mistakes cannot be overcome.
The Buccaneers will have their hands full with a road environment against a division rival as it is, but as Arians said, if it’s “the Bucs beating the Bucs,” they won’t stand much chance anyway.
Clearly Cam Newton is still trying to get back to full health with a surgically-repaired throwing shoulder and an injured foot and everyone now realizes the biggest key to get the Panthers going is running back, Christian McCaffrey.
McCaffrey had over a hundred yards from scrimmage in the opening loss to L.A. last week and had likewise over a hundred yards combined catching and running a football in both games last year against the Buccaneers.
Look for Tampa Bay to try to shadow him with Pro Bowl linebacker Lavonte David and rookie linebacker and former number 1 pick out of LSU, Devin White. Those two will be heavily counted on to neutralize the guy that has become the Panthers best offensive weapon.
If they do, it will go a long way towards helping the Buccs win their first game of the season.
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